I am not a polling expert, nor am I attempting to pass myself off as one. I am, however, encouraging everyone to look at the totality of 2008 general election polling. While doing this, it becomes very clear that former Senator John Edwards is by far the most electable Democrat.
And for the record, I am in no way affiliated with the Edwards campaign. I am simply a very proud supporter who is thrilled to see that the Democrat most committed to fighting for a progresive agenda is also the most electable.
Links
Pollster
Survey USA
Real Clear Politics
Rasmussen
Quinnipiac University
A PhD numbers theorist recently confirmed what many Edwards supporters have been saying for months now, John Edwards is the most electable Democrat.
You also might want to check out this diary, which was my attempt to lay everything out.
The numbers below only go back to January out of fairness to Senator Obama, who was not included in many general election polls before that time. In reference to Real Clear Politics' General Election polling averages, please read John Edwards and Polling Averages.
Here is a 10 week average of the national general election polling that included all 3 Democrats from July to early September. And here is a 10 week average of national general election polling that included all 3 Democrats from August to early October.
If you need a resource to deal with some of the spin being used by supporters of other candidates, try going here, or read the bottom of this diary.
I have also written about claims concerning who performs best against Rudy Giuliani going here. When reading this, it might help to illustrate what I mean by "natural closing". For instance, a recent Rasmussen poll in Illinois that only included Senator Obama and Senator Clinton, showed Senator Clinton leading Rudy Giuliani by only 3% points. If we were to go by their rules, this means that Clinton could lose Illinois to Giuliani, but we all know that after natural closing takes place, she would almost certainly win the state if she were nominated.
Douglas Schoen, who used to advise President Clinton and is currently the pollster for New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg wrote about one of the many reasons why Edwards does so well aganst Giuliani in an analysis that he wrote for Rasmussen called Behind the Horse Race Numbers: Edwards Strongest Democrat in General Election Match-ups .
Finally, Edwards at this point demonstrates the greatest appeal to Independents beating Guiliani by 13%. Obama wins Independents by 5% and Clinton wins them by 3% against Guiliani.
Real Clear Politics has also confirmed that John Edwards is the most electable Democrat... Edwards, Not Hillary, is Dems' Best Chance.
Here's a brief list of others who have talked about Edwards' electability...
Rasmussen: Edwards Out-Performs Clinton Against All Four Major GOP Candidates; Out-Performs Obama Against Giuliani, Thompson and Romney. According to the most recent general election polling data from Rasmussen Reports, Edwards out-performs Senator Clinton against all four major Republican presidential candidates and out-performs Senator Obama against three of the four. Edwards Leads Rudy Giuliani 50% to 41%, while Clinton leads 48% to 43% and Obama leads 47% to 42%. Edwards leads Fred Thompson 49% to 39%, while Clinton leads him 49% to 41% and Obama leads him 47% to 41%. Edwards leads McCain 45% to 41%, while Clinton leads 46% to 45%. Edwards leads Romney 49% to 38% while Obama leads 46% to 43% and Clinton leads 49% to 40%. [Rasmussen, 9/29/07; Rasmussen, 9/27/07 ; Rasmussen, 9/24/07 ; Rasmussen, 9/21/07 ; Rasmussen, 9/15/07; Rasmussen, 9/6/07; Rasmussen, 9/6/07; Rasmussen, 9/4/07]
Rasmussen (August 27, 2007): Edwards "Generally Outperforms Other Democrats in General Election Match-Ups Against Republicans." In an August 27, 2007, assessment of the latest general election polling data, Rasmussen Reports wrote, "While he generally outperforms other Democrats in general election match-ups against Republicans, Edwards remains mired in third place in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination." [Rasmussen, 8/27/07]
ABC News (September 2007): "Polls Show Edwards Does Better than Either of His Rivals in Head-to-Head Matchups with Leading Republicans." In a September 2007 report covering Edwards' endorsements from the United Steelworkers and United Mine Workers of America, ABC News noted, "One key selling point Edwards is making to unions — and increasingly to the crowds that come to hear him speak in Iowa, New Hampshire and other early nominating states — is that he stands a better chance of winning a general election than either Clinton or Obama. And in fact, polls show Edwards does better than either of his main rivals in head-to-head matchups with leading Republicans." [ABC News, 9/3/07]
The Global Strategy Group's memos are a great resource, and the data is presented in a very effective way. The first one can be found here. The second memo and third memo are also available.
To see state by state comments about Edwards' electability, skip down past the polling.
Since 2008 general election polling began, there has been a clear trend. Whether the Republicans he faced were Jeb Bush and Condi Rice, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani, or Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson, and now Mike Huckabee... Senator Edwards has shown time and time again that he is the most electable Democrat. Senator Obama, and to a lesser extent Senator Clinton, have had a few days in the sun, but these occasions have become even fewer, and far between.
It has become crystal clear that if we as Democrats want to make the most out of the opportunity that has presented itself in 2008, we need to nominate and elect John Edwards. He is the only candidate who can win a realignment victory, and substantially grow the Democratic majorities in Congress. Edwards can win a sweeping mandate that can help end the "progressive = unelectable" myth, reclaim the Democratic party from corporate interests and spineless triangulators, and allow Senator Edwards to, in his own words, "really move a progressive agenda".
Public Policy Polling - OH: January 6, 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 45%
Romney - 40%
Obama - 44%
Romney - 38%
Edwards - 53%
Romney - 33%
Clinton leads by 5%, Obama leads by 6%, Edwards leads by 20%
Vs. Mike Huckabee
Clinton - 43%
Huckabee - 45%
Obama - 43%
Huckabee - 43%
Edwards - 49%
Huckabee - 40%
Clinton trails by 2%, Obama is tied, Edwards leads by 9%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 42%
McCain - 46%
Obama - 42%
McCain - 45%
Edwards - 47%
McCain - 40%
Clinton trails by 4%, Obama trails by 3%, Edwards leads by 7%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 37%
Obama - 47%
Giuliani - 37%
Edwards - 51%
Giuliani - 34%
Clinton leads by 7%, Obama leads by 10%, Edwards leads by 17%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by 1.50%
Obama leads the Republicans by 3.25%
Edwards leads the Republicans by 13.25%
Rasmussen - National: November / December 2007
Favorable / Unfavorable
Hillary Clinton - 47/50 - 45/52 - 46/52 - 47/53 - 44/55 - 47/50 - 45/54 - 48/50
Barck Obama - 48/47 - 45/50 - 44/50 - 48/47 - 50/44 - 48/47 - 52/45 - 43/51
John Edwards - 46/47 - 46/45 - 47/46 - 48/44 - 43/47 - 47/45 - 48/44 - 49/42
Ideology
% of voters that view candidate as - Conservative / Moderate / Liberal
November:
Hillary Clinton: 9 / 31 / 51
Barack Obama: 6 / 33 / 44
John Edwards: 13 / 30 / 38
December:
Note: Match-Ups Are Listed In Order Of Release. Some Match-Ups Are Updated More Frequently Than Others.
Vs. Mitt Romney
Edwards - 50%
Romney - 34%
Clinton - 47%
Romney - 42%
Obama - 46%
Romney - 40%
Obama - 48%
Romney - 39%
Clinton - 46%
Romney - 43%
Obama - 45%
Romney - 41%
Clinton - 43%
Romney - 44%
Edwards leads by 16%, Clinton leads by 5%, Obama leads by 6%, Obama leads by 9%, Clinton leads by 3%, Obama leads by 4%, Clinton trails by 1%
Vs. Mike Huckabee
Clinton - 46%
Huckabee - 45%
Obama - 45%
Huckabee - 41%
Edwards - 44%
Huckabee - 40%
Edwards - 49%
Huckabee - 37%
Clinton - 47%
Huckabee - 43%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 12%, Clinton leads by 4%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 42%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 41%
Clinton - 42%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 41%
Clinton - 46%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 44%
Giuliani - 44%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 2%, Clinton trails by 4%, Obama leads by 2%, Clinton leads by 3%, Edwards ties, Obama ties, Clinton trails by 1%
Vs. John McCain
Edwards - 47%
McCain - 38%
Clinton - 45%
McCain - 47%
Obama - 46%
McCain - 43%
Obama - 44%
McCain - 44%
Edwards - 46%
McCain - 39%
Clinton - 43%
McCain - 49%
Edwards leads by 9%, Clinton trails by 2%, Obama leads by 3%, Obama ties, Edwards leads by 7%, Clinton trails by 6%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 42%
Obama - 47%
Thompson - 42%
Clinton - 46%
Thompson - 44%
Obama - 48%
Thompson - 41%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 5%, Clinton leads by 2%, Obama leads by 7%
Public Policy Polling - NC: December 17, 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 42%
Romney - 46%
Obama - 42%
Romney - 45%
Edwards - 52%
Romney - 40%
Clinton trails by 4%, Obama trails by 3%, Edwards leads by 12%
Vs. Mike Huckabee
Clinton - 42%
Huckabee - 48%
Obama - 42%
Huckabee - 47%
Edwards - 50%
Huckabee - 43%
Clinton trails by 6%, Obama trails by 5%, Edwards leads by 7%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 39%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 46%
Edwards - 48%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton trails by 7%, Obama trails by 3%, Edwards leads by 5%
Averages
Clinton trails the Republicans by 5.66%
Obama trails the Republicans by 3.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by 8.00%
CNN / Opinion Research - National: December 11, 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 54%
Romney - 43%
Obama - 54%
Romney - 41%
Edwards - 59%
Romney - 37%
Clinton leads by 11%, Obama leads by 13%, Edwards leads by 22%
Vs. Mike Huckabee
Clinton - 54%
Huckabee - 44%
Obama - 55%
Huckabee - 40%
Edwards - 60%
Huckabee - 35%
Clinton leads by 10%, Obama leads by 15%, Edwards leads by 25%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 51%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 52%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 53%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 7%, Edwards leads by 9%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 48%
McCain - 50%
Obama - 48%
McCain - 48%
Edwards - 52%
McCain - 44%
Clinton trails by 2%, Obama ties, Edwards leads by 8%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by 6.25%
Obama leads the Republicans by 8.75%
Edwards leads the Republicans by 16.00%
Quinnipiac University - OH: December 5, 2007
Favorable / Unfavorable
Hillary Clinton - 46/45
Barack Obama - 44/28
John Edwards - 48/29
Vs. Rudy Guiliani
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 41%
Obama - 42%
Giuliani - 38%
Edwards - 45%
Giuliani - 38%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 7%
Quinnipiac University - OH: November 14, 2007
Note: Edwards and Obama were only polled against Giuliani.
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 41%
Giuliani - 41%
Edwards - 46%
Giuliani - 40%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama is tied%, Edwards lead by 6%
Newsweek - National: November 3, 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 49%
Romney - 45%
Obama - 53%
Romney - 37%
Edwards - 53%
Romney - 37%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 16%, Edwards leads by 16%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 49%
Thompson - 45%
Obama - 52%
Thompson - 39%
Edwards - 53%
Thompson - 39%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 13%, Edwards leads by 14%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 49%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 48%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 48%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 3%, Edwards leads by 3%
Average
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 4.00%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 10.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 11.00%
Quinnipiac University - National: October 29, 2007
Favorable / Unfavorable
Democrats
Hillary Clinton - 46/46
Barack Obama - 50/26
John Edwards - 46/29
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 48%
Romney - 38%
Obama - 46%
Romney - 36%
Edwards - 47%
Romney - 34%
Clinton leads by 10%, Obama leads by 10%, Edwards leads by 13%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 46%
Thompson - 41%
Obama - 45%
Thompson - 37%
Edwards - 46%
Thompson - 36%
Clinton leads by 5%, Obama leads by 8%, Edwards leads by 10%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 43%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 42%
Edwards - 44%
Giuliani - 41%
Clinton trails by 2% Obama leads by 1%, Edwards trails by 3%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 44%
McCain - 44%
Obama - 43%
McCain - 43%
Edwards - 42%
McCain - 42%
Clinton ties, Obama ties, Edwards ties
Average
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 3.25%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 4.75%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 5.00%
Quinnipiac University - Florida: October 25, 2007
Favorable / Unfavorable
Hillary Clinton - 46/47
Barack Obama - 45/29
John Edwards - 50/28
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 47%
Romney - 39%
Obama - 44%
Romney - 37%
Edwards - 48%
Romney - 34%
Clinton leads by 8%, Obama leads by 7%, Edwards leads by 14%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 46%
Thompson - 41%
Obama - 43%
Thompson - 39%
Edwards - 47%
Thompson - 36%
Clinton leads by 5%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 11%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 43%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 40%
Giuliani - 47%
Edwards - 41%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton trails by 3%, Obama trails by 7%, Edwards trails by 3%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 44%
McCain - 43%
Obama - 42%
McCain - 42%
Edwards - 42%
McCain - 40%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama is tied, Edwards leads by 2%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 2.75%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 1.00%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 6.00%
Rasmussen - National: October 2007 (Most recent match-ups)
Favorable / Unfavorable
Hillary Clinton - 49/49 - 54/45 - 47/51 - 46/52 - 50/49
Barack Obama - 47/45 - 55/39 - 51/42 - 47/48 - 48/50
John Edwards - 49/44 - 46/47 - 48/44 - 46/43
Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Conservative - 8%
Moderate - 34%
Liberal - 51%
Barack Obama
Conservative - 7%
Moderate - 34%
Liberal - 49%
John Edwards
Conservative - 10%
Moderate - 34%
Liberal - 44%
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 47%
Romney - 41%
Obama - 48%
Romney - 39%
Edwards - 52%
Romney - 35%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 9%, Edwards leads by 17%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 47%
Thompson - 45%
Obama - 44%
Thompson - 43%
Edwards - 48%
Thompson - 39%
Clinton leads by 2%, Obama leads by 1%, Edwards leads by 9%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 44%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton trails by 2%, Obama trails by 2%, Edwards trails by 1%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 44%
McCain - 43%
Obama - 44%
McCain - 45%
Edwards - 47%
McCain - 40%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama trails by 1%, Edwards leads by 7%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 1.75%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 1.75%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 8.00%
The entire month, in order of release...
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 47%
Romney - 41%
Obama - 48%
Romney - 39%
Edwards - 52%
Romney - 35%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 52%
Thompson - 37%
Obama - 47%
Thompson - 41%
Clinton - 47%
Thompson - 45%
Edwards - 48%
Thompson - 39%
Obama - 44%
Thompson - 43%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 41%
Obama - 46%
Giuliani - 41%
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 46%
Edwards - 44%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 45%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 44%
McCain - 43%
Obama - 44%
McCain - 45%
Edwards - 47%
McCain - 40%
Quinnipiac University - OH, FL, PA: October 10, 2007
Swing States - Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania
Out of 12 match-ups
Edwards Outperforms Clinton 8 times. Clinton Outperforms Edwards 4 times.
Edwards Outperforms Obama 11 times. Obama Outperforms Edwards 1 time.
Ohio
Favorable / Unfavorable
Hillary Clinton - 49/42
Barack Obama - 45/26
John Edwards - 47/26
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 51%
Romney - 34%
Obama - 47%
Romney - 31%
Edwards - 50%
Romney - 28%
Clinton leads by 16%, Obama leads by 16%, Edwards leads by 22%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 36%
Obama - 44%
Thompson - 33%
Edwards - 48%
Thompson - 31%
Clinton leads by 14%, Obama leads by 11%, Edwards leads by 17%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 46%
Giuliani - 40%
Obama - 44%
Giuliani - 38%
Edwards - 46%
Giuliani - 36%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 6%, Edwards leads by 10%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 48%
McCain - 38%
Obama - 43%
McCain - 39%
Edwards - 46%
McCain - 35%
Clinton leads by 10%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 11%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 11.50%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 9.25%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 15.00%
Florida
Favorable / Unfavorable
Hillary Clinton - 49/41
Barack Obam - 47/27
John Edwards - 46/32
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 48%
Romney - 37%
Obama - 43%
Romney -36%
Edwards - 47%
Romney - 33%
Clinton leads by 11%, Obama leads by 7%, Edwards leads by 14%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 39%
Obama - 45%
Thompson - 36%
Edwards - 44%
Thompson 36%
Clinton leads by 9%, Obama leads by 9%, Edwards leads by 8%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 46%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 39%
Giuliani - 42%
Edwards - 41%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama trails by 3%, Edwards trails by 2%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 46%
McCain - 42%
Obama - 39%
McCain - 41%
Edwards- 42%
McCain - 40%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama trails by 2%, Edwards leads by 2%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 6.50%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 2.75%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 5.50%
Pennsylvania
Favorable / Unfavorable
Hillary Clinton - 51/42
Barack Obama - 48/22
John Edwards - 49/27
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 49%
Romney - 37%
Obama - 49%
Romney - 33%
Edwards - 49%
Romney - 32%
Clinton leads by 12%, Obama leads by 16%, Edwards leads by 17%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 50%
Thompson - 39%
Obama - 45%
Thompson - 37%
Edwards - 47%
Thompson - 34%
Clinton leads by 11%, Obama leads by 8%, Edwards leads by 13%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 42%
Obama - 45%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 43%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama trails by 2%, Edwards trails by 1%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 48%
McCain - 41%
Obama - 45%
McCain - 41%
Edwards - 47%
McCain - 39%
Clinton leads by 7%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 8%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 9.00%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 6.50%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 9.25%
Survey USA - Series of state wide polls: September 20 - October 4, 2007
Out of 51 match-ups…
Edwards outperforms Clinton 35 times. Clinton outperforms Edwards 15 times. They tie once.
Edwards outperforms Obama 46 times. Obama outperforms Edwards 4 times.They tie once.
Ohio
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 52%
Romney - 42%
Obama - 45%
Romney - 46%
Edwards - 56%
Romney - 36%
Clinton leads by 10%, Obama trails by 1%, Edwards leads by 20%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 47%
Obama - 42%
Thompson - 50%
Edwards - 52%
Thompson - 43%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama trails by 8%, Edwards leads by 9%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 47%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 39%
Giuliani - 52%
Edwards - 47%
Giuliani - 48%
Clinton trails by 1%, Obama trails by 13%, Edwards trails by 1%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 3.33%
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of 7.00%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 9.33%
Iowa
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 50%
Romney - 43%
Obama - 51%
Romney - 41%
Edwards - 54%
Romney - 38%
Clinton leads by 7%, Obama leads by 10%, Edwards leads by 16%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 50%
Thompson - 44%
Obama - 51%
Thompson - 41%
Edwards - 54%
Thompson - 37%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 10% Edwards leads by 17%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 50%
Giuliani - 42%
Obama - 50%
Giuliani - 42%
Edwards - 53%
Giuliani - 39%
Clinton leads by 8%, Obama leads by 8%, Edwards leads by 14%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 7.00%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 9.33%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 15.66%
Missouri
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 51%
Romney - 40%
Obama - 51%
Romney - 40%
Edwards - 56%
Romney - 32%
Clinton leads by 11%, Obama leads by 11%, Edwards leads by 24%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 45%
Obama - 48%
Thompson - 45%
Edwards - 50%
Thompson - 40%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama leads by 3%, Edwards leads by 10%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 46%
Giuliani - 44%
Edwards - 47%
Giuliani - 42%
Clinton trails by 3%, Obama leads by 2% Edwards leads by 5%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 3.66%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 5.33%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 13.00%
New Mexico
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 54%
Romney - 39%
Obama - 55%
Romney - 36%
Edwards - 54%
Romney - 34%
Clinton leads by 15%, Obama leads by 19%, Edwards leads by 20%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 53%
Thompson - 42%
Obama - 52%
Thompson - 41%
Edwards - 52%
Thompson - 37%
Clinton leads by 11%, Obama leads by 11%, Edwards leads by 15%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 51%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 46%
Giuliani - 46%
Edwards - 48%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton leads by 8%, Obama is tied, Edwards leads by 4%
Average
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 11.33%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 10.00%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 13.00%
Kentucky
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 46%
Romney - 46%
Obama - 43%
Romney - 45%
Edwards - 48%
Romney - 38%
Clinton is tied, Obama trails by 2%, Edwards leads by 10%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 45%
Thompson - 50%
Obama - 37%
Thompson - 54%
Edwards - 45%
Thompson - 44%
Clinton trails by 5%, Obama trails by 17%, Edwards leads by 1%
Vs. Rudy Giuluiani
Clinton - 41%
Giuliani - 51%
Obama - 36%
Giuliani - 54%
Edwards - 43%
Giuliani - 50%
Clinton trails by 10%, Obama trails by 18%%, Edwards trails by 7%
Average
Clinton trails the Republicans by an average of 5.00%
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of 12.33%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 1.33%
Virginia
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 53%
Romney - 38%
Obama - 50%
Romney - 38%
Edwards - 52%
Romney 33%
Clinton leads by 15%, Obama leads by 12%, Edwards leads by 19%,
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 50%
Thompson - 43%
Obama - 45%
Thompson - 47%
Edwards - 49%
Thompson - 39%
Clinton leads by 7%, Obama trails by 2%, Edwards leads by 10%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 50%
Giuliani 44%
Obama - 46%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 48%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 1%, Edwards leads by 5%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 9.33%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 3.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 11.33%
Florida
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 51%
Romney - 41%
Obama - 44%
Romney - 46%
Edwards - 50%
Romney - 37%
Clinton leads by 10%, Obama trails by 2%, Edwards leads by 13%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 50%
Thompson - 42%
Obama - 42%
Thompson - 48%
Edwards - 46%
Thompson - 43%
Clinton leads by 8%, Obama trails by 6%, Edwards leads by 3%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 49%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 41%
Giuliani - 50%
Edwards - 43%
Giuliani - 48%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama trails by 9%, Edwards trails by 5%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 8.00%
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of 5.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 3.66%
Minnesota
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 56%
Romney - 33%
Obama - 53%
Romney - 33%
Edwards - 55%
Romney - 28%
Clinton leads by 23%, Obama leads by 20%, Edwards leads by 27%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 52%
Thompson - 39%
Obama - 49%
Thompson - 41%
Edwards - 51%
Thompson - 35%
Clinton leads by 13%, Obama leads 8%, Edwards leads by 16%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 52%
Giuliani - 41%
Obama - 47%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 48%
Giuliani - 40%
Clinton leads by 11%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 8%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 15.66%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 10.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 17.00%
Wisconsin
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 50%
Romney - 41%
Obama - 52%
Romney -37%
Edwards - 52%
Romney - 34%
Clinton leads by 9%, Obama leads by 15%, Edwards leads by 18%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 47%
Thompson - 45%
Obama - 48%
Thompson - 43%
Edwards - 49%
Thompson - 40%
Clinton leads by 2%, Obama leads by 5%, Edwards leads by 9%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 44%
Obama - 46%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 44%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 3%, Edwards trails by 1%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 5.00%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 7.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 8.66%
Oregon
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 51%
Romney 38%
Obama - 53%
Romney - 35%
Edwards - 52%
Romney - 34%
Clinton leads by 13%, Obama leads by 18%, Edwards leads by 18%,
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 49%
Thompson - 42%
Obama - 48%
Thompson - 43%
Edwards - 51%
Thompson - 36%
Clinton leads by 7%, Obama leads by 5%, Edwards leads by 15%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 46%
Giuliani - 44%
Obama - 46%
Giuliani - 46%
Edwards - 47%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton leads by 2%, Obama is tied, Edwards leads by 3%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 7.33%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 7.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 12.00%
Washington
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 54%
Romney 40%
Obama - 57%
Romney - 35%
Edwards - 55%
Romney - 31%
Clinton leads by 14%, Obama leads by 22%, Edwards leads by 24%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 52%
Thompson - 42%
Obama - 54%
Thompson - 40%
Edwards - 51%
Thompson - 36%
Clinton leads by 10%, Obama leads by 14%, Edwards leads by 15%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 47%
Giuliani - 47%
Obama - 52%
Giuliani - 41%
Edwards - 45%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton is tied, Obama leads by 11%, Edwards leads by 1%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 8.00%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 15.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 13.33%
Oklahoma
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 47%
Romney 44%
Obama - 40%
Romney - 46%
Edwards - 53%
Romney - 32%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama trails by 6%, Edwards leads by 21%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 44%
Thompson - 50%
Obama - 35%
Thompson - 55%
Edwards - 47%
Thompson - 41%
Clinton trails by 6%, Obama trails by 20%, Edwards leads by 6%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 47%
Obama - 33%
Giuliani - 54%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 40%
Clinton trails by 3%, Obama trails by 21%, Edwards leads by 9%
Averages
Clinton trails the Republicans by an average of 2.00%
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of 15.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 12.00%
California
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 63
Romney - 30%
Obama - 51%
Romney - 36%
Edwards - 58%
Romney - 27%
Clinon leads by 33% Obama leads by 15%, Edwards leads by 31%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 60%
Thompson - 34%
Obama - 53%
Thompson - 37%
Edwards - 53%
Thompson - 32%
Clinton leads by 26%, Obama leads by 16%, Edwards leads by 21%
Vs. Rudy Guilaini
Clinton - 57%
Giuliani - 37%
Obama - 48%
Giuliani - 44%
Edwards - 46%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton leads by 20%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads Giuliani by 2%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 26.33%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 11.66%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 18.00%
New York
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 67%
Romney - 27%
Obama - 58%
Romney - 30%
Edwards - 58%
Romney - 24%
Clinton leads by 40%, Obama leads by 28%, Edwards leads by 34%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 64%
Thompson - 30%
Obama - 53%
Thompson - 38%
Edwards - 54%
Thompson - 32%
Clinton leads by 34%, Obama leads by 15%, Edwards leads by 22%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 59%
Giuliani - 35%
Obama - 49%
Giuliani - 44%
Edwards - 45%
Giuliani - 46%
Clinton leads by 14%, Obama leads by 5%, Edwards trails by 1%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 29.33%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 16.00%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 18.33%
Alabama
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 45%
Romney - 46%
Obama - 36%
Romney - 53%
Edwards - 45%
Romney - 39%
Clinton trails by 1%, Obama trails by 17%, Edwards leads by 6%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 41%
Thompson - 54%
Obama - 34%
Thompson - 60%
Edwards - 38%
Thompson - 50%
Clinton trails by 13%, Obama trails by 26%, Edwards trails by 12%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 41%
Giuliani - 52%
Obama - 32%
Giuliani - 59%
Edwards - 40%
Giuliani - 50%
Clinton trails by 11%, Obama trails by 27%, Edwards trails by 10%
Average
Clinton trails the Republicans by an average of 8.33%
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of 23.33%
Edwards trails the Republicans by an average of 5.33%
Kansas
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 46%
Romney - 45%
Obama - 47%
Romney - 41%
Edwards - 48%
Romney - 34%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama leads by 6%, Edwards leads by 14%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 40%
Thompson - 53%
Obama - 40%
Thompson - 50%
Edwards - 39%
Thompson - 46%
Clinton trails by 13%, Obama trails by 10%, Edwards trails by 7%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 40%
Giuliani - 52%
Obama - 40%
Giuliani - 51%
Edwards - 40%
Giuliani - 50%
Clinton trails by 12, Obama trails by 11%, Edwards trails by 10%
Average
Clinton trails the Republicans by an average of 8.00%
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of 5.00%
Edwards trails the Republicans by an average of 1.00%
Massachusetts
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 65%
Romney - 31%
Obama - 57%
Romney - 35%
Edwards - 57%
Romney - 32%
Clinton leads by 34%, Obama leads by 22%, Edwards leads by 25%,
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 61%
Thompson - 32%
Obama - 53%
Thompson - 36%
Edwards - 56%
Thompson - 31%
Clinton leads by 29%, Obama leads by 17% Edwards leads Thompson by 25%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 59%
Giuliani - 34%
Obama - 48%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 48%
Giuliani - 40%
Clinton leads by 25%, Obama leads by 5%, Edwards leads by 8%
Averages
Clinton leads by an average of 27.33%
Obama leads by an average of 14.66%
Edwards leads by an average of 19.33%
Quinnipiac University - Ohio: September 6, 2007
Favorable / Unfavorable
Hillary Clinton - 51/ 43
Barack Obama - 47/ 25
John Edwards - 54/ 26
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 50%
Romney - 37%
Obama - 46%
Romney - 32%
Edwards - 50%
Romney - 30%
Clinton leads by 13%, Obama leads by 14%, Edwards leads by 20%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 49%
Thompson - 37%
Obama - 46%
Thompson - 34%
Edwards - 50%
Thompson - 32%
Clinton leads by 12%, Obama leads by 12%, Edwards leads by 18%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 47%
Giuliani - 40%
Obama - 42%
Giuliani - 41%
Edwards - 47%
Giuliani - 38%
Clinton leads by 7%, Obama leads by 1%, Edwards leads by 9%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 46%
McCain - 41%
Obama - 41%
McCain - 42%
Edwards - 46%
McCain - 38%
Clinton leads by 5%, Obama trails by 1%, Edwards leads by 8%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 9.25%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 6.50%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 13.75%
Quinnipiac University - Pennsylvania: August 23, 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 50%
Romney - 35%
Obama - 46%
Romney - 31%
Edwards - 53%
Romney - 29%
Clinton leads by 15%, Obama leads by 15%, Edwards leads by 24%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 50%
Thompson - 36%
Obama - 46%
Thompson - 34%
Edwards - 51%
Thompson - 32%
Clinton leads by 14%, Obama leads by 12%, Edwards leads by 19%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 46%
Giuliani - 44%
Obama - 40%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 43%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton leads by 2%, Obama trails by 5%, Edwards trails by 2%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 47%
McCain - 41%
Obama - 43%
McCain - 40%
Edwards - 46%
McCain - 38%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 3%, Edwards leads by 8%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 9.25%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 6.25%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 12.25%
Rasmussen - National: August 2007 / September 2007
Note: During the month of August, some match ups were updated numerous times, while others were not updated at all. For this reason, we grouped August and September together.
Here is what Rasmussen had to say about their general election polling in late September 2007...
One interesting twist to this year's early Presidential polling is that Edwards typically outperforms other leading Democratic hopefuls in general election match-ups...
Still, Edwards currently leads the top four Republican candidates by an average of nearly nine points. Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton leads the top GOP hopefuls by an average of six points, while Barack Obama holds an average lead of five points.
Favorable / Unfavorable
Hillary Clinton - 49/48 - 50/48 - 45/54 - 47/50 - 49/49 - 49/49 - 49/50 - 52/48
Barack Obama - 48/45 - 48/42 - 47/45 - 50/43 - 46/47 - 49/45 - 47/45 - 53/41
John Edwards - 54/39 - 52/42 - 49/46 - 48/44 - 52/41 - 52/41 - 51/41 - 48/43
Vs. Mitt Romney
Round One
Clinton - 51%
Romney - 40%
Obama - 47%
Romney - 38%
Edwards - 49%
Romney - 38%
Round Two
Clinton - 49%
Romney - 40%
Obama - 46%
Romney - 43%
Round 1 - Clinton leads by 9%, Obama leads by 9%, Edwards leads by 11%
Round 2 - Clinton leads by 9%, Obama leads by 3%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Round One
Clinton - 45%
Thompson - 46%
Obama - 46%
Thompson - 39%
Edwards - 47%
Thompson - 41%
Round Two
Clinton - 46%
Thompson - 43%
Obama - 45%
Thompson - 41%
Edwards - 49%
Thompson - 35%
Round Three
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 44%
Obama - 46%
Thompson - 42%
Edwards - 49%
Thompson - 39%
Round Four
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 43%
Obama - 47%
Thompson - 41%
Round Five
Clinton - 49%
Thompson - 41%
Obama - 49%
Thompson - 38%
Round 1 - Clinton trails by 1%, Obama leads by 7%, Edwards leads by 6%
Round 2 - Clinton leads by 3%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 14%
Round 3 - Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 10%
Round 4 - Clinton leads by 5%, Obama leads by 6%
Round 5 - Clinton leads by 8%, Obama leads by 11%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Round One
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 44%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 46%
Giuliani - 44%
Round Two
Clinton - 40%
Giuliani - 47%
Obama - 45%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 41%
Round Three
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 47%
Obama - 44%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 50%
Giuliani - 41%
Round 4
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 47%
Giuliani - 42%
Round 5
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 47%
Giuliani - 42%
Round 1 - Clinton trails by 1%, Obama leads by 1%, Edwards leads by 2%
Round 2 - Clinton trails by 7%, Obama leads by 2%, Edwards leads by 8%
Round 3 - Clinton trails by 3%, Obama trails by 1%, Edwards leads by 9%
Round 4 - Clinton trails by 1%, Obama leads by 5%
Round 5 - Clinton leads by 5%, Obama leads by 5%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 45%
McCain - 43%
Obama - 46%
McCain - 40%
Edwards - 45%
McCain - 41%
Round Two
Clinton - 46%
McCain - 44%
Obama - 46%
McCain - 41%
Round Three
Clinton - 46%
McCain - 45%
Round 1 - Clinton leads by 2%, Obama leads by 6%, Edwards leads by 4%
Round 2 - Clinton leads by 2%, Obama leads by 5%
Round 3 - Clinton leads by 1%
Quinnipiac University - National: August 13, 2007
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 49%
Thompson - 38%
Obama - 46%
Thompson - 35%
Edwards - 49%
Thompson - 32%
Clinton leads by 11%, Obama leads by 11%, Edwards leads by 17%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 46%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 42%
Giuliani - 42%
Edwards - 43%
Giuliani - 42%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama is tied, Edwards leads by 1%
vs. John McCain
Clinton - 47%
McCain - 41%
Obama - 43%
McCain - 39%
Edwards - 45%
McCain - 37%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 8%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 6.66%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 5.00%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 8.66%
Rasmussen - National: July 2007
Favorable / Unfavorable (at months end)
Hillary Clinton - 52/46
Barack Obama - 53/41
John Edwards - 54/39
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 46%
Romney - 42%
Obama - 47%
Romney - 38%
Edwards - 52%
Romney - 36%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 9%, Edwards leads by 16%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 45%
Thompson - 45%
Obama - 46%
Thompson - 40%
Edwards - 50%
Thompson - 39%
Clinton is tied, Obama leads by 6%, Edwards leads by 11%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 47%
Giuliani - 41%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 42%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama leads by 6%, Edwards leads by 7%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 47%
McCain - 38%
Obama - 47%
McCain - 38%
Edwards - 45%
McCain - 38%
Clinton leads by 9%, Obama leads by 9%, Edwards leads by 7%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 3.50%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 7.50%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 10.25%
Rasmussen - National: June 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 50%
Romney - 41%
Obama - 49%
Romney - 37%
Edwards - 51%
Romney - 33%
Clinton leads by 9%, Obama leads by 12%, Edwards leads by 18%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 45%
Thompson - 45%
Obama - 43%
Thompson - 41%
Edwards - 50%
Thompson - 41%
Clinton is tied, Obama leads by 2%, Edwards leads by 9%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 41%
Giuliani - 44%
Edwards - 45%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama trails by 3%, Edwards is tied
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 46%
McCain - 42%
Obama - 46%
McCain - 38%
Edwards - 49%
McCain - 36%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 8%, Edwards leads by 13%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 3.50%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 4.75%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 10.00%
Gallup - National: June 20th, 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 53%
Romney - 40%
Obama - 57%
Romney - 36%
Edwards - 61%
Romney - 32%
Clinton leads by 13%, Obama leads by 21%, Edwards leads by 29%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 50%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 50%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 50%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton leads by 4%, Obama leads by 5%, Edwards leads by 5%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 49%
McCain - 46%
Obama - 48%
McCain - 46%
Edwards - 50%
McCain - 44%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama leads by 2%, Edwards leads by 6%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 6.66%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 9.33%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 13.33%
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 47%
Romney - 41%
Obama - 47%
Romney - 43%
Edwards - 51%
Romney - 37%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 14%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 43%
Thompson - 46%
Obama - 44%
Thompson - 45%
Edwards - 47%
Thompson - 43%
Clinton trails by 3%, Obama trails by 1%, Edwards leads by 4%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 43%
Giuliani - 47%
Obama - 42%
Giuliani - 46%
Edwards - 46%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton trails by 4%, Obama trails by 4%, Edwards leads by 1%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 45%
McCain - 44%
Obama - 44%
McCain - 45%
Edwards - 48%
McCain - 40%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama trails by 1%, Edwards leads by 8%
Averages
Clinton averages a tie against the Republicans
Obama trails the Republicans by an average of .50%
Edwards leads the Republicans an average of 6.75%
Rasmussen - National: May 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 47%
Romney - 44%
Obama - 52%
Romney - 37%
Edwards - 55%
Romney - 29%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama leads by 15%, Edwards leads by 26%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 43%
Obama - 47%
Thompson - 44%
Edwards - 51%
Thompson - 38%
Clinton leads by 5%, Obama leads by 3%, Edwards leads by 13%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 39%
Giuliani - 51%
Edwards - 47%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton trails by 1%, Obama trails by 12%, Edwards leads by 4%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 42%
McCain - 48%
Obama - 46%
McCain - 42%
Edwards - 48%
McCain - 41%
Clinton trails by 6%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 7%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of .25%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 2.50%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 12.50%
Newsweek - National: May 3rd, 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 57%
Romney - 35%
Obama - 58%
Romney - 29%
Edwards - 64%
Romney - 27%
Clinton leads by 22%, Obama leads by 29%, Edwards leads by 37%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 49%
Giuliani - 46%
Obama - 50%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 50%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama leads by 7%, Edwards leads by 6%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 50%
McCain - 44%
Obama - 52%
McCain - 39%
Edwards - 52%
McCain - 42%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama leads by 13%, Edwards leads by 10%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 10.33%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 16.33%
Edwards leads the Republicans by an average of 17.66%
Survey USA - Series of state wide polls: May 2nd, 2007
Vs. Fred Thompson
Ohio
Clinton - 53%
Thompson - 38%
Obama - 43%
Thompson - 43%
Edwards - 57%
Thompson - 33%
Clinton leads by 15%, Obama is tied, Edwards leads by 24%
Iowa
Clinton - 46%
Thompson - 44%
Obama - 51%
Thompson - 41%
Edwards - 58%
Thompson - 35%
Clinton leads by 2%, Obama leads by 10%, Edwards leads by 23%
Missouri
Clinton - 49%
Thompson - 41%
Obama - 47%
Thompson - 41%
Edwards - 53%
Thompson - 32%
Clinton leads by 8%, Obama leads by 6%, Edwards leads by 21%
Virginia
Clinton - 43%
Thompson - 47%
Obama - 40%
Thompson - 46%
Edwards - 48%
Thompson - 38%
Clinton trails by 4%, Obama trails by 6%, Edwards leads by 10%
Kentucky
Clinton - 53%
Thompson - 40%
Obama - 42%
Thompson - 48%
Edwards - 56%
Thompson - 34%
Clinton leads by 13%, Obama trails by 6%, Edwards leads by 22%
Wisconsin
Clinton - 46%
Thompson - 43%
Obama - 45%
Thompson - 42%
Edwards - 50%
Thompson - 37%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama leads by 3%, Edwards leads by 13%
Minnesota
Clinton - 53%
Thompson - 37%
Obama - 48%
Thompson - 40%
Edwards - 56%
Thompson - 32%
Clinton leads by 16%, Obama leads by 8%, Edwards leads by 24%
Alabama
Clinton - 44%
Thompson - 49%
Obama - 37%
Thompson - 53%
Edwards - 42%
Thompson - 44%
Clinton trails by 5%, Obama trails by 16%, Edwards leads by 2%
Texas
Clinton - 49%
Thompson - 43%
Obama - 42%
Thompson - 46%
Edwards - 49%
Thompson - 38%
Clinton leads by 6%, Obama trails by 4%, Edwards leads by 11%
Kansas
Clinton - 42%
Thompson - 49%
Obama - 46%
Thompson - 42%
Edwards - 50%
Thompson - 37%
Clinton trails by 7%, Obama leads by 4%, Edwards leads by 13%
New Mexico
Clinton - 51%
Thompson - 41%
Obama - 47%
Thompson - 40%
Edwards - 52%
Thompson - 34%
Clinton leads by 10%, Obama leads by 7%, Edwards leads by 18%
Oregon
Clinton - 48%
Thompson - 41%
Obama - 50%
Thompson - 36%
Edwards - 49%
Thompson - 34%
Clinton leads by 7%, Obama leads by 14%, Edwards leads by 15%
Washington
Clinton - 54%
Thompson - 37%
Obama - 53%
Thompson - 37%
Edwards - 57%
Thompson - 32%
Clinton leads by 17%, Obama leads by 16%, Edwards leads by 25%
California
Clinton - 57%
Thompson - 36%
Obama - 53%
Thompson - 36%
Edwards - 54%
Thompson - 31%
Clinton leads by 21%, Obama leads by 17%, Edwards leads by 23%
New York
Clinton - 64%
Thompson - 30%
Obama - 50%
Thompson - 38%
Edwards - 59%
Thompson - 29%
Clinton leads by 34%, Obama leads by 12%, Edwards leads by 30%
Massachusetts
Clinton - 60%
Thompson - 31%
Obama - 48%
Thompson - 37%
Edwards - 61%
Thompson - 25%
Clinton leads by 29%, Obama leads by 11%, Edwards leads by 36%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Ohio
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 40%
Giuliani - 51%
Edwards - 50%
Giuliani - 42%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama trails by 11%, Edwards leads by 8%
Iowa
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 49%
Giuliani - 44%
Edwards - 54%
Giuliani - 40%
Clinton trails by 3%, Obama leads by 5%, Edwards leads by 14%
Missouri
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 42%
Giuliani - 50%
Edwards - 48%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton trails by 3%, Obama trails by 3%, Edwards leads by 5%
Virginia
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 49%
Obama - 38%
Giuliani - 53%
Edwards - 45%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton trails by 5%, Obama trails by 15%, Edwards is tied
Kentucky
Clinton - 46%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 38%
Giuliani - 54%
Edwards - 47%
Giuliani - 44%
Clinton trails by 2%, Obama trails by 16%, Edwards leads by 3%
Wisconsin
Clinton - 44%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 39%
Clinton trails by 1%, Obama trails by 2%, Edwards leads by 10%
Minnesota
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 49%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 41%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama trails by 6%, Edwards leads by 8%
WNBC/Marist - National: May 1st, 2007
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 48%
Giuliani - 43%
Obama - 41%
Giuliani - 43%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton leads by 5%, Obama trails by 2%, Edwards leads by 6%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 47%
McCain - 42%
Obama - 39%
McCain - 46%
Edwards - 49%
McCain - 39%
Clinton leads by 5%, Obama leads by 7%, Edwards leads by 10%
Rasmussen - National: April 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 50%
Romney - 41%
Obama - 51%
Romney - 36%
Edwards - 55%
Romney - 29%
Clinton leads by 9%, Obama leads by 15%, Edwards leads by 26%
Vs. Fred Thompson
Clinton - 47%
Thompson - 44%
Obama - 49%
Thompson - 42%
Edwards - 53%
Thompson - 32%
Clinton leads by 3%, Obama leads by 7%, Edwards leads by 20%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 45%
Giuliani - 45%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 44%
Edwards - 49%
Giuliani - 43%
Clinton is tied, Giuliani trails by 1%, Edwards leads by 6%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 44%
McCain - 48%
Obama - 48%
McCain - 42%
Edwards - 47%
McCain - 38%
Clinton trails by 4%, Obama leads by 6%, Edwards leads by 9%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 2.00%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 6.75%
Edwards leads the Republican by an average of 15.25%
Newsweek - National: March 1st, 2007
Vs. Mitt Romney
Clinton - 53%
Romney - 38%
Obama - 54%
Romney - 34%
Edwards - 58%
Romney - 30%
Clinton leads by 15%, Obama leads by 10%, Edwards leads by 28%
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 46%
Giuliani - 47%
Obama - 43%
Giuliani - 48%
Edwards - 45%
Giuliani - 47%
Clinton trails by 1%, Obama trails by 5%, Edward trails by 2%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 47%
McCain - 46%
Obama - 45%
McCain - 43%
Edwards - 48%
McCain - 43%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama leads by 2%, Edwards leads by 5%
Averages
Clinton leads the Republicans by an average of 5.00%
Obama leads the Republicans by an average of 2.33%
Edwards leads the Republicans by ab average of 10.33%
Newsweek - National: January 18th, 2007
Vs. Rudy Giuliani
Clinton - 47%
Giuliani - 48%
Obama - 47%
Giuliani - 45%
Edwards - 48%
Giuliani - 45%
Clinton trails by 1%, Obama leads by 2%, Edwards leads by 3%
Vs. John McCain
Clinton - 48%
McCain - 47%
Obama - 46%
McCain - 44%
Edwards - 48%
McCain - 43%
Clinton leads by 1%, Obama leads by 2%, Edwards leads by 5%
Ohio House Chief of Staff (R): Edwards Has the Best Chance of Winning Ohio in a General Election. During June 2007 interview, Scott Borgemenke, chief of staff for the Republican-controlled Ohio House of Representatives, predicted that Edwards was the Democratic presidential candidate most likely to carry Ohio in a general election. "I think if John Edwards wins Iowa and gets some steam and ends up being the candidate, Ohio could go with an Edwards type of Democrat, or an Edwards-looking Democrat, meaning he looks like every other Ohioan," Borgemenke said. "I think Ohio is very much in play for the Republicans if Hillary or Obama is the candidate." [OhioPols.com, Borgemenke Interview, 6/8/07]
Democratic Strategist: Edwards Can Win Virginia ; Clinton Can't. In September 2007, a Democratic strategist told National Review columnist Jim Geraghty, "Edwards would win Virginia straight up, but with Hillary, even Mark Warner revving everybody up couldn't help her." [National Review Online, Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07]
Edwards Has Received Strong Support from Members of Congress from Red States and Rural Areas. Senator Edwards has been endorsed by 15 members of Congress, many of whom hail from so-called "red states" or rural districts. His congressional supporters include every Democratic member of the North Carolina congressional delegation, as well as Reps. Raul Grijalza of Arizona , Charlie Gonzales and Eddie Bernice Johnson of Texas , Jim Oberstar of Minnesota , David Obey of Wisconsin , Bart Stupak of Michigan and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin of South Dakota . [The Hill, Congressional Endorsements ]
Former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes: "John Edwards Is the Best Positioned to Win All Across the Country—Not Just Part of It." In March 2007, former Georgia Governor Roy Barnes endorsed Edwards. "I proudly support John Edwards for President of the United States ," said Barnes. "He will fight to improve the lives of every American. He has detailed plans and bold ideas to change America . And John Edwards is the best positioned to win all across the country—not just part of it." [John Edwards for President Press Release, 3/23/07]
Former Kentucky US Rep. Ken Lucas: Edwards "Understands the South." In March 2007, former Kentucky Representative Ken Lucas endorsed Edwards. "John Edwards not only understands the South, but he will be a president we can trust and who will put our country back on track," Lucas said. [John Edwards for President Press Release, 3/30/07]
Former Georgia Lt. Governor Mark Taylor: John Edwards "Is Definitely the Most Electable Candidate." In June 2007, former Georgia Lieutenant Governor Mark Taylor endorsed Edwards. " John Edwards was my candidate in 2004 and I am endorsing him again in 2008," Taylor said. "He is definitely the most electable candidate in 2008 and we need a southerner who is committed to providing good paying jobs with benefits for all Americans." [John Edwards for President Press Release, 6/5/07]
Former Texas US Rep. Chris Bell: "We Need a Candidate Who Can Fight and Win Everywhere in the Country, Including Here in Texas ." In March 2007, former Texas Representative Chris Bell endorsed Edwards. "If we want to take back the White House, we need a candidate who can fight and win everywhere in the country, including here in Texas ," Bell said. "I am convinced that nobody will work harder for the values that Texas Democrats believe in, especially by fighting every day for people who work for a living." [John Edwards for President Press Release, 3/8/07]
Texas Rep. Charlie Gonzales: Edwards is "the Strongest Candidate We Can Nominate for President in 2008." In March 2007, Texas Representative Charlie Gonzales endorsed Edwards. "I am convinced that John Edwards is both the strongest candidate we can nominate for President in 2008, and also the candidate who will fight hardest to implement an agenda that will improve the lives of the citizens in my district, and in the nation," Gonzales said. [John Edwards for President Press Release, 3/7/07]
Los Angeles Times: In the West, "Party Officials Across the Region Are Increasingly Anxious That Their Congressional Candidates May Get Dragged Under by Hillary Rodham Clinton's Presidential Campaign." In September 2007, the Los Anegles Times reported, "Despite recent gains by Democrats in the Rocky Mountain West, party officials across the region are increasingly anxious that their congressional candidates may get dragged under by Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign." [Los Angeles Times, 9/30/07]
Polls Show Clinton Is the Most Unpopular Democratic Presidential Candidate. According to the Los Angeles Times, "The New York senator and Democratic front-runner was by a wide margin the most unpopular of 13 potential presidential candidates in Montana , according to a June survey by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research for the Billings Gazette … Recent polls in Colorado , Nevada and Arizona have found similar distaste for Clinton ." [Los Angeles Times, 9/30/07]
Arizona Poll: One Third of Independents Would Not Vote for Clinton. According to the Los Angeles Times, "In Arizona, where Democrats hope to pick up at least one congressional seat next year, 37% of the respondents in a recent Cronkite/Eight Poll said they would never vote for Clinton ; 3% said they would never vote for Obama. Opposition to Clinton was strongest among Republicans, but a third of independents, who were crucial to many Democratic congressional victories in 2006, said they would never vote for the former first lady. Clinton 's unfavorable ratings also far outpaced other Democratic candidates in recent polls in Nevada and Colorado , two states where Democrats hope to make gains next year." [Los Angeles Times, 9/30/07 ]
Colorado Pollster: Clinton Is "Carrying Huge Negatives Out Here;" Expects Udall to Distance Himself from Clinton if She Is the Nominee. According to the Los Angeles Times , "Floyd Ciruli, an independent Colorado pollster who said Democratic congressional candidates would have to highlight their differences with the national party to be successful next year." "She's carrying huge negatives out here," he said. "It's that liberal East Coast image that is so hard to sell in the West." The Times also noted, "Ciruli and others familiar with Colorado politics expect Rep. Mark Udall, the leading Democratic contender for the state's open Senate seat, to distance himself from Clinton , if she wins the nomination." [Los Angeles Times, 9/30/07]
Democratic Strategist: Clinton Is "a Disaster for Western Democrats … It Keeps Me Up at Night." According to the Los Angeles Times, "One key advisor to a prominent Democratic congressional candidate, who asked not be to identified discussing tensions within the party, went even further. 'It's a disaster for Western Democrats,' he said. 'It keeps me up at night.'" [Los Angeles Times, 9/30/07]
Democratic Strategist: Clinton Will Drag Down Democrats in Republican Areas. In September 2007, a Democratic strategist told National Review columnist Jim Geraghty, "I'd say outside of Arkansas , any marginal southern races are gone [for Democrats] if Hillary's the nominee." The strategist then cited numerous examples of places where Democratic incumbents would suffer with Senator Clinton at the top of the ticket. [National Review Online, Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07]
Georgia: According to a Democratic strategist. "[Rep. Jim Marshall] is in a district where Bush carried 60 percent; if Hillary's the nominee, he's toast ... For [Rep. John] Barrow's district, it was a little closer (Bush carried 50.4 percent). But it's a race Democrats will have to spend money on to keep. I mean, it's Georgia, man." [National Review Online , Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07 (emphasis in original)]
Texas: According to a Democratic strategist. "Lampson, [Tom Delay's old seat in TX-22], he'd be toast with Hillary as the candidate. Chet Edwards [TX-17] survived John Kerry, but I'm not sure he can survive Hillary if he gets a serious opponent. It's Bush's home district [for his Crawford ranch]. It's a tough thing even for a Ciro Rodriguez [TX-23]." [National Review Online, Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07]
Florida and Alabama : According to Geraghty, "Other southern targets include Alabama 's fifth district, and Tim Mahoney in Florida 's 16th District (Mark Foley's seat). 'That's going to be a tough one in any race, and with Hillary, I'm pretty sure we'll lose,' the strategist laments." [National Review Online, Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07]
South Dakota: According to a Democratic strategist. "[Senator Tim] Johnson, between the physical ailments and thin margin of victory last time, is going to have a tough time, and Hillary would just knock him out it." [National Review Online, Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07]
Louisiana: According to a Democratic strategist. "[Senator Mary] Landrieu is gonna have a fight no matter who nominee is, but I think Edwards is the only one who gives her a chance." [National Review Online, Jim Geraghty Column, 9/20/07]
Associated Press: Democrats Across the Country Worry that Senator Clinton Would Hurt Down-Ballot Candidates. In August 2007, the Associated Press reported, "Looking past the presidential nomination fight, Democratic leaders quietly fret that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton at the top of their 2008 ticket could hurt candidates at the bottom. They say the former first lady may be too polarizing for much of the country. She could jeopardize the party's standing with independent voters and give Republicans who otherwise might stay home on Election Day a reason to vote, they worry. In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and party chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races." [Associated Press, 8/12/07 ]
Indiana State Representative: Clinton "Would Be a Drag" on Candidates in His State. According to the Associated Press, Indiana State Rep. David Crooks said of Clinton being the Democratic presidential nominee, "I'm not sure it would be fatal in Indiana , but she would be a drag" on down-ballot candidates. The report also said, "Crooks said Clinton would be a burden in districts like his full of 'gun-toting, bible-carrying, God-loving, church-attending' voters. 'She is just so polarizing,' the state lawmaker said. Clinton would drag any candidate down 3 or 4 percentage points, he said." [Associated Press, 8/12/07]
Midwest State Democratic Party Chairman: Clinton Would be a "Nightmare" for Down-Ballot Races. According to the Associated Press, "The chairman of a Midwest state party called Clinton a nightmare for congressional and state legislative candidates." [Associated Press, 8/12/07]
Western Democratic Congressman: Clinton "Most Likely to Cost Him His Seat." According to the Associated Press, "A Democratic congressman from the West, locked in a close re-election fight, said Clinton is the Democratic candidate most likely to cost him his seat." [Associated Press, 8/12/07]
Greenville, South Carolina , Party Chairman: Clinton Will Turn out Republicans to Vote Not Likely to Vote Otherwise. According to the Associated Press, "'The argument with Hillary right now in some of these red states is she's so damn unpopular,' said Andy Arnold, chairman of the Greenville, S.C., Democratic Party. 'I think Hillary is someone who could drive folks on the other side out to vote who otherwise wouldn't. Republicans are upset with their candidates ... but she will make up for that by essentially scaring folks to the polls.'" [Associated Press, 8/12/07]
West Virginia House Leader "Has Some Legitimate Reservations" About Clinton at the Top of the Ticket. According to the Associated Press, Carrie Webster, a West Virginia state House leader, said of having Senator Clinton at the top of the ticket, "I'm one of these Democrats who has some legitimate reservations, because the Clintons have in the past invigorated the Republican base." [Associated Press, 8/12/07]
Pollster John Anzalone: "For Edwards, He's a Southern Guy and There's a Comfort Level There." In May 2007, Alabama-based Democratic pollster John Anzalone explained Edwards' early fundraising advantage the South, saying, "For Edwards, he's a Southern guy and there's a comfort level there." He said that in the case of Senator Clinton and Mayor Giuliani, "it's kind of like the Pace Picante Sauce commercial: They're from New York City ." [AP, 5/1/07]
Strategist Rick Dent: Many Southern Democrats "See Edwards as the True Southerner and the One Who Can Win." In May 2007, Atlanta-based Democratic strategist Rick Dent said Edwards' "strong support illustrates that many Southern Democratic leaders would prefer to see Edwards atop the party ticket. 'They see Edwards as the true Southerner and the one who can win,' said Dent." [AP, 5/1/07]
